The best-case scenario is that we don’t see the end of the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic before autumn.
Federal health officials say that’s only if we keep up strong physical distancing measures all spring and summer. The federal public health agency released a series of stark projections this morning on the possible number of coronavirus deaths.
Even under those best-case terms, it says 4,400 to 44,000 Canadians could die of COVID-19 in the coming months and that between 1% and 10% of the population will be infected.
A more likely scenario puts the total number of deaths in the 11,000 to 22,000 range, based on an infection rate of 2.5% to 5%.
It's not clear if we are trending toward the best-case scenario yet.
